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Effecten van het veranderende EU beleid op de Nederlandse melkveehouders en de mogelijkheden voor ING om daarop in te spelen

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Effecten van het veranderende EU beleid op de Nederlandse melkveehouders en de mogelijkheden voor ING om daarop in te spelen en
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Effecten van het veranderende EU beleid op de Nederlandse melkveehouders en de mogelijkheden voor ING om daarop in te spelen en 2 Effecten van het veranderende EU beleid op de Nederlandse melkveehouders en de mogelijkheden voor ING om daarop in te spelen Student: Jan Klink BSc Datum: 5 april 2010 Vak: MSc. Thesis Management Studies (MST-80433) Begeleiders: Dr. H.J. Bremmers, Wageningen Universiteit Management Studies; 1 e begeleider Dr. J.L.F. Hagelaar, Wageningen Universiteit Management Studies; 2 e begeleider Ing. C.H. Bruns MBA, ING manager agrarisch advies Drs. M.J.P.M. Peek, ING Commercial Banking Economisch Bureau Leerstoelgroep: Leerstoelgroep Bedrijfskunde Gebouw 201 Hollandseweg KN WAGENINGEN Copyright 2010 Alle rechten voorbehouden. Geen enkel deel van deze publicatie mag worden gereproduceerd of gedistribueerd in enige vorm of op enige wijze, zonder voorafgaande toestemming van de auteur. Dit rapport is geproduceerd door een student van Wageningen Universiteit als onderdeel van zijn MSc-programma. Het is niet een officiële publicatie van Wageningen Universiteit of Wageningen UR en de inhoud hierin vertegenwoordigt niet een formele positie of vertegenwoordiging door Wageningen Universiteit. 3 Voorwoord Per 1 oktober 2009 ben ik bij ING begonnen om het laatste onderdeel van mijn studieperiode aan de Wageningen Universiteit af te sluiten. Het schrijven van je scriptie is een proces waarbij je discipline op moet brengen en vooral door moet gaan met lezen, schrijven, denken, vragen en analyseren. In mijn geval schreef ik mijn scriptie bij het Economisch Bureau van ING in Amsterdam. Dit is een bureau waar aan de lopende band sectorstudies worden geschreven en waar een motiverende studie- en schrijfsfeer heerst. Deze omgeving bood mij de mogelijkheid om vooral maar door te gaan met het schrijven van mijn scriptie. Het is geweldig om je studie af te kunnen sluiten op gebieden die je erg interesseren. ING Agrarisch Advies bood mij in samenwerking met het Economisch Bureau van ING de mogelijkheid om een scriptie te schrijven over de impact van Europese ontwikkelingen op de Nederlandse zuivelsector. Tegelijkertijd wilde ING haar marktaandeel in deze afnemende Nederlandse melkveehouderijsector vergroten. Deze elementen maken een mooie integratie tussen mijn stage bij het Europees parlement, mijn thuissituatie waar we een melkveebedrijf hebben en mijn studie management and economics. In deze scriptie ligt het voor de hand om Nederlandse melkveehouders naar hun kostprijzen en financieringen per kilo melk en naar hun visies te vragen over de toekomstige EU ontwikkelingen aangaande de nieuwe EU financieringsperiode ( ) en de afschaffing van het melkquotum per 1 april Ik heb daar niet voor gekozen, omdat deze cijfers veel beter bij het LEI zijn te verkrijgen. Een vernieuwend element voorzag ik in de creatie van een model waarin risico-, solvabiliteit- en rentabiliteitratio s in verschillende scenario s op basis van de mogelijke EU ontwikkelingen uiteen worden gezet. Vervolgens is dit model getoetst tijdens een besloten Rondetafelgesprek, georganiseerd door Cor Bruns en ondergetekende, met stakeholders uit de Nederlandse zuivelsector. Deze scriptie zal samen met de uitkomsten van het Rondetafelgesprek aanleiding zijn voor een brochure van ING Economisch Bureau over de effecten van de EU ontwikkelingen op de Nederlandse melkveehouderijsector. ING zal hiermee het eerste bedrijf in de Nederlandse agribusiness zijn die een concrete visie heeft op de naderende Europese veranderingen met betrekking tot de zuivelsector. Vanaf deze plaats zou ik graag Cor Bruns en Marcel Peek van ING willen danken voor hun tijd, begeleiding en feedback die ze het gehele traject wekelijks hebben gegeven. Daarnaast wil ik mijn tweede lezer Geoffrey Hagelaar van de Wageningen Universiteit en Gemma Tacken van het LEI danken voor hun nieuwe inzichten om andere benaderingen toe te passen. Tot slot dank ik mijn eerste begeleider Harry Bremmers van de Wageningen Universiteit voor zijn directe kritieken en snelle reacties. Met zo een begeleider is het haalbaar om binnen de gestelde tijden een scriptie af te ronden. Ik hoop dat u tijdens het lezen van deze scriptie enige nieuwe inzichten krijgt over hoe de financiële positie van een Nederlandse melkveehouder door EU ontwikkelingen zou kunnen veranderen. Amsterdam, 5 april 2010 Jan Klink 4 Abstract This thesis has been set out how ING can improve its position within the Dutch dairy sector. The study is focused on the opportunities of the Dutch dairy farmers and ING in the light of EU developments. Through literature research, positioning theories about strategy formulation are listed. Then an environmental analysis of ING has been realized. Subsequently, the dairy sector is analyzed and the aspects of this sector are mapped. The consequences for Dutch dairy farms to the changing environment in the dairy sector are analyzed by using scenario analysis based on profitability, solvency and risk of the Dutch dairy farmers, towards ING. These scenarios are related to the European developments in 2013 (end of current EU budget period) and 2015 (end of milk quota). The inputs of the several scenarios are based on data from the LEI. Then there is examined how ING could anticipate on these different scenarios. This anticipation is also based on a Round Table discussion with stakeholders in the Dutch dairy sector. Further, it will become clear which part of the Dutch dairy sector is interesting for ING to advice and finance. Eventually, recommendations about the market position of ING on the Dutch dairy farmers are given. These recommendations are partly based on results of the Round Table and will answer the question how ING can improve its position within the Dutch dairy sector. Keywords: Strategy, ING, Common Agricultural Policy, European milk quota system, Dutch dairy farmers, scenario analysis, Round Table discussion 5 Inhoudsopgave Voorwoord... 4 Abstract... 5 Management summary... 7 Afkortingen in gebruik Hoofdstuk 1 Inleiding Probleemanalyse Doel Onderzoeksvraag Het onderzoeksraamwerk Hoofdstuk 2 Theoretisch kader Positioneringtheorieën Omgevingsanalysemethoden Hoofdstuk 3 Omgevingsanalyse van ING ING sector Agrarisch ING en de Nederlandse melkveehouderij ING en de concurrentie Conclusie Hoofdstuk 4 Omgevingsanalyse van de melkveehouderijsector De omvang van de zuivelsector De zuivelsector in de EU Toekomst zuivelbeleid EU Conclusie Hoofdstuk 5 De Nederlandse melkveehouderij Geschiedenis van de Nederlandse landbouw en zuivelsector De kansen en bedreigingen in de huidige zuivelsector Conclusie Hoofdstuk 6 Scenarioanalyses Scenarioplanning Variabelen Scenario s Conclusie Hoofdstuk 7 Anticipatie ING Reactie stakeholders Nederlandse melkveehouderijsector Nieuwe product- en visieontwikkeling ING Hoofdstuk 8 Discussie Hoofdstuk 9 Conclusie en aanbevelingen Conclusie Aanbevelingen Bijlagen Bijlage I. Financieringsproducten voor de agrarische markt Bijlage II. Lenen voor een investering Bijlage III. Melkquotum en productie EU 2008/ Bijlage IV. Nederlandse agrarische handel Bijlage V. Veronderstellingen voor Bijlage VI. Kostprijs van melk op zuivere melkveebedrijven Bijlage VII. Berekeningen Bijlage VIII. Uitgenodigde stakeholders Rondetafelgesprek Bijlage IX. Brief stakeholders Bijlage X. Bevestigingsbrief stakeholders Bronnen Management summary This thesis is written at ING Netherlands. ING is a global financial institution of Dutch origin offering banking, investments, life insurance and retirement services. ING is serving more than 85 million private, corporate and institutional customers in Europe, North and Latin America, Asia and Australia 1. The position of ING in the Netherlands will be assessed, whereby the objective of this research will be how ING can increase its market share within the Dutch dairy sector. The Dutch dairy sector is linked to the European policy. Therefore it is necessary to give an overview of this Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in a nutshell. See Box 1: The Common Agricultural Policy. Box 1: The Common Agricultural Policy Since the creation of the CAP in 1957 in the Treaty of Rome and its starts in 1962 by the six founding Member States (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and The Netherlands), the CAP has continuously evolved. From its beginning, the two major orientations were the increase in productivity and the protectionism, the rules of the games have been changed. Due to the new Member States, predominance of the world market, new objectives and growing criticism, the European Union (EU) was pushed to reform its system several times. After the Health Check reform, executed in 2008, it appears that a next reform is inevitable. The objective of the Health Check was to evaluate the actual agricultural policy and to anticipate the evolution of the CAP after 2013; in response to criticism from outside the EU concerning the distortion of the world market, but also from EU countries concerning the unfair division of the subsidies and from criticism from stakeholders within each Member State. In order to answers all the diverse and multiple expectations, the Health Check of the CAP suggests to make the EU agriculture more competitive and more environmentally friendly by decreasing the subsidies linked to the production and increasing the subsidies helping the rural development 2. This study compared the position of ING, based on strategy formation, with other financial service providers within the Dutch agricultural sector. ING would like to gain market share within this sector and improve its vision towards the Dutch dairy farmers and their environment. ING is interested in the opportunities of the Dutch dairy farmers and how ING effectively and efficiently can act on these opportunities. The purpose of this thesis is to explain various scenarios based on profitability, solvency and risk of Dutch dairy farmers as (potential) customers of ING. These scenarios are particularly based on the European developments of 2013 (end of current European budget period) and 2015 (end of the milk quota system) and set out in three different scenarios: conservative, liberal, and alternative. ING wants to know more about the possible effects of the EU policy in the Dutch dairy sector. Thus, ING would like to generate a vision and create some matching banking products on this sector. Through literature research, positioning theories related to strategy formulation are listed. Then an environmental analysis of ING has been realized. Subsequently, the dairy sector is analyzed and the aspects of this sector are mapped. The consequences for Dutch dairy farms to the changing environment in the dairy sector are then analyzed by using scenario analysis. The inputs of the several scenarios are based on data from the LEI. Then there is examined how ING could anticipate on these different scenarios. This anticipation is also based on a Round Table discussion with stakeholders in the Dutch dairy sector. Further, it will become clear which part of the Dutch dairy sector is interesting for ING to advice and finance. Eventually, recommendations about the market position of ING on the Dutch dairy farmers are given. These recommendations are partly based on results of the Round Table discussion and answer the question of how ING could improve its position within the Dutch dairy sector. A Strategic Framework (see figure a) has been developed to concretize the connection between the various disciplines within this thesis. The framework presents a summary of the four different frames which are researched. The four different frames are: dynamic (the EU developments), static (the Dutch dairy farmer with its scale, opportunities and threats, debts per kilogram of milk and other sources of income), the position of ING and the alternatives (recommendations). There are aspects, like EU developments, which have an impact on the dairy sector within the EU and the financial position of the Dutch dairy farmers. These aspects are analyzed in the scenario analysis. Moreover, the position of ING with its strategic aims and preconditions influence the dynamic 7 and static frame. In Figure a, the four frames are connected to each other and the figure makes the essence of the several frames in a few sentences clear. Dynamic: EU developments Future EU dairy policy By 2014 end of current EU budget period and by 2015 end of the milk quota system. Scenario Analyses Full liberal or conservative scenario is not realistic. Only average and large dairy farms are viable in an innovative, but permanent European agricultural policy Position ING Strategic aims Only financing dairy farmers with above average profile ( 600,000 kg milk and a good business plan) Preconditions DSCR 1,3 and solvency 30% of the dairy farmers. Static: Dutch dairy farmer Scale An average Dutch dairy farm has a size of approximately 580,000 kg milk. It is a decreasing and capital- and knowledgeintensive sector. Opportunities and threats Efficiency can be achieved. European and national policy give many uncertainties. Debts per kilogram of milk 80% of the dairy farmers have an interestonly loan. The financing per kilo of milk should, depending on the assets, not be placed much above the 1.00, if a dairy farmer wants to make new investments. Other sources of income Additional revenues of small-scale dairy farmers allows this group to provide them with new funding. Alternatives Recommendations - Because of the abolition of milk quota, the increasing importance of environmental issues and a better comparative approach between different farmers, the debts per cow are more important than calculations based on kilo s of milk. - ING can create quality, to profile itself as a knowledge based bank. - Consider also issues such as animal welfare, food quality and secondary activities of the Dutch dairy farmers by analyses based on the EU developments, the position of ING and the Dutch dairy farmer. Figure a. Strategic Framework The scenario analysis, which is based on the forthcoming EU developments, shows that the alternative scenario will be the most likely one. The alternative scenario is a variant with EU support based on a flat rate per hectare and whereby the milk quota system will be abolished. A fully liberal or conservative scenario is not realistic and will generate very low profit margins and low profitability. The DSCR (risk ratio) in these scenarios are below 1 and therefore far too low. Within the alternative scenario the criteria of ING are met. Only within this scenario ING can provide financial products to medium and large dairy farms. It is however important that the financing per kilo of milk will not be placed much above the ING s financing products, like investment loan, the business mortgage and the fixed rate lending are applicable to these types of dairy farms. The business mortgage and the fixed rate lending have still the possibility of obtaining an interest-only loan. It is given the findings of this thesis not wise to offer this possibility even longer. As a relatively small player, ING has about 7.5% market share of the Dutch agricultural sector, ING's strategic position could be based on quality. ING can profile itself as a quality bank. Concrete financial products, like an interest-only loan, have only a limited expiry date. The release of studies and visions of the Dutch dairy sector is a first step. If a financial institution, like ING, has the knowledge of a certain industry, a (potential) customer also wants to listen to that financial institution. Ultimately it should be the case that the gained knowledge will be transferred to potential customers and the relevant sector in a modern and interactive way. It is important that the connection of ING to the client will be 8 brief and that (potential) customers will receive new information on a frequent basis. There is more newsworthy in several small studies, then in a large sector study. In addition, one or more studies, e.g. in relation to animal welfare and food quality, could make use of the well working vraag van vandaag survey of ING. The concrete recommendations to ING related to the Dutch dairy sector with regard to the upcoming European developments are: - Make clear how the balance distribution, equity versus debt, of the Dutch dairy farmer looks like. The value of milk quota will fall to zero within a period of five years; - Respond as soon as possible on these changes in the balance sheet by developing future-proof transitional loans for this transition period; - Invest in knowledge of the dairy sector and decide which financial products could be applicable for Dutch dairy farmers after These products should be financially painless for the customers and ING; - Give advice to the Dutch dairy farmers about transitional loans and future-proof financial products, which are based on the EU developments; - Connect the knowledge of the dairy sector and new financial products to the individual situation of a Dutch dairy farmer, to improve the bank-customer relation. 9 Afkortingen in gebruik ABN AMRO ASG BNI BRIC BV CBS CEO COPA DDB DSCR EC EDF EMB EP EU FAO FNLI GGO GLB IFCN ING LEI LNV LTO MKB MTR NGE NMV NZO OECD PESTEL RFC SWOT VK VS WUR Algemene Bank Nederland Amsterdam Rotterdam Animal Sciences Group Bruto Nationaal Inkomen Brazilië, Rusland, India en China Besloten Vennootschap Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek Chief Executive Officer Committee of Professional Agricultural Organisations Dutch Dairymen Board Debt Service Coverage Ratio Europese Commissie European Dairy Farmers European Milk Board Europees Parlement Europese Unie Food and Agricultural Organization Federatie Nederlandse Levensmiddelen Industrie Genetisch Gemodificeerde Organismen Gemeenschappelijk Landbouwbeleid International Farm Comparison Network Internationale Nederlanden Groep Landbouw Economisch Instituut Landbouw, Natuur en Voedselkwaliteit (ministerie) Land- en Tuinbouw Organisatie Midden en Klein Bedrijf Mid Term Review Nederlandse Grootte-Eenheden Nederlandse Melkveehouders Vakbond Nederlandse Zuivel Organisatie Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal Royal FrieslandCampina Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats Verenigd Koninkrijk Verenigde Staten van Amerika Wageningen Universiteit en Researchcentrum 10 Hoofdstuk 1 Inleiding De Nederlandse melkveehouderij is in beweging! Na vele jaren van stabiliteit in de Nederlandse en Europese melkveehouderijsector zijn er sinds het melkquotumjaar 2007/2008 bijzondere markttrends waar te nemen. Zo stegen de prijzen van melk voor de melkveehouders in 2008 tot ongekende hoogtes, om vervolgens tot een historisch dieptepunt (sinds de invoering van het melkquotum) te zakken. De daling in de melkprijs was zo drastisch en ingrijpend dat er op 5 oktober 2009 een Europese top met alle ministers van landbouw van de EU lidstaten in Brussel werd georganiseerd. 21, Nederland behoorde niet tot deze groep, van de 27 lidstaten wilden dat deze top er kwam om extra steun te bieden aan de Europese melkveehouders 3. In december 2008 heeft ING haar visie uitgesproken om het marktaandeel in de Nederlandse agrarische sector, waar de melkveehouderij deel van uit maakt, te vergroten tot 10% van de markt aan het einde van ING wil zich vooral richten op de grotere agrarische bedrijven met ondernemers die een visie op de lange termijn hebben. Deze groeidoelstelling zal consequenties hebben voor concurrerende banken in de agrarische sector en afhangen van de investeringsbehoefte van de boeren en tuinders 4. De Nederlandse agrarische sector is een belangrijke speler voor de Nederlandse handel. Het saldo over 2008 van de agrarische handel maakt met een omvang van 23,6 miljard, 65% uit van het totale Nederlandse handelsoverschot. De belangrijkste exportproducten, die vooral naar EU landen gaan, om dit resultaa
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